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A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

By |2019-11-07T16:22:14-05:00November 7th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like [...]

The Shock, The Squeeze, and The Downside

By |2019-08-28T11:39:46-04:00August 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday, Eurostat confirmed that German GDP in Q2 2019 had contracted. Also issuing benchmark revisions, the European government agency found that GDP growth had been slightly better than previously thought at the top of Reflation #3. The last two quarters of 2017 saw the biggest upward revisions. But if Europe’s “boom” really was a little [...]

Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

By |2019-08-13T13:01:05-04:00August 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else. This was the scenario increasingly [...]

Germany Struggles On

By |2019-07-24T16:05:18-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis [...]

Europeans First to Reverse: Draghi Warned Draghi Seventeen Months Ago

By |2019-06-18T12:07:17-04:00June 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the basis for rational analysis, it was a very public admission of bias and error. We don’t know why inflation ultimately will do what we believe it will, they said, we just believe that it will so you should, too. It sounds ludicrous, but it is actually very much in keeping with standard [...]

Only Partial Springtime Sentiment Shift, ECB Edition

By |2019-04-17T17:39:02-04:00April 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At last week’s ECB’s press conference, the central bank’s President Mario Draghi was both downbeat and upbeat. As to the former, he acknowledged that Europe’s economy wasn’t working out the way they’d all hoped (and repeatedly promised). Despite the disappointment, Draghi wasn’t completely deterred. This growth scare wasn’t really European, he said. China, trade, and [...]

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

By |2019-03-19T16:14:36-04:00March 19th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6. That’s up from -24.7 back in October, though sentiment had [...]

The Basis Behind The Forming ECB ‘Pause’

By |2019-01-25T16:04:22-05:00January 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These things are all related, not that they are in any way connected by conventional thoughts on the subject of the global economy. Two European officials are now on record hinting at an ECB “pause.” There is one already underway in the US, Federal Reserve officials past and present debating how long it might last [...]