wages

Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

By |2019-08-26T16:42:01-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s [...]

Post-Landmine Payrolls

By |2019-07-05T12:32:29-04:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never about a single payroll report. Even still, there’s something significant in how the “good” ones aren’t measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the headline is being described as relieving [...]

Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not

By |2019-05-03T12:24:30-04:00May 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still don’t explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation? You can be reasonably excited when the unemployment rate falls below 5%, as it did four years ago. Three point six, however, [...]

Auto Sales The Lowest In Half A Decade, Just Coincidence FCA Will Join Ford, GM Ditching Monthly Sales Estimates

By |2019-05-02T17:37:15-04:00May 2nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

FCA, formerly Fiat-Chrysler, is the latest automaker to switch from a monthly sales report. Joining GM and Ford, beginning in October all three of Detroit’s big car companies will be publishing quarterly sales figures. The announcement comes at an auspicious moment. As with the other two, FCA claims the change is being done in the [...]

Incomes And The R-word

By |2019-04-29T18:16:34-04:00April 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The easy answer for “muted” inflation is consumers. Forget the unemployment rate debate. Let’s assume that labor markets are tight. Workers are scarce and companies have to compete, and pay up, to secure labor. Input costs are rising. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee an accelerating CPI or PCE Deflator. There is a final step in the [...]

A First Look At Why Greater Demand For Scapegoats Than Rate Cuts

By |2019-04-01T16:55:18-04:00April 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported data on US Personal Income and Spending that hit every sour note. There was the lowest inflation rate, the deflator to those spending figures, in years as well as the clear need to officially anoint a successor to the Verizon madness. The release [...]

What Is Missed Inflation

By |2019-03-12T12:34:44-04:00March 12th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As an alternate member of the FOMC, Lorretta Mester has been sounding off on inflation. When the payroll report for the month of August 2018 was released early in September, Mester as President of the Cleveland Fed was widely quoted for her “hawkish” stance. Referencing the highest wage growth in a decade, speaking in Boston [...]

Fed: We Are, Don’t Get Spooked, Very Happy With Things But We Are Going to Review Our Policies And Tools In the Very Small, Microscopic Chance We’ve Missed Something

By |2019-03-08T17:36:45-05:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last August, the Senate confirmed Richard Clarida for both a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as to be installed as its Vice Chairman. Clarida had been chairman of the Economics department at Columbia as well as working for PIMCO where he had served the investment company as its Global Strategic [...]