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Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-08-29T16:08:52-04:00August 29th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

This is a companion piece to last week's Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-07-19T18:19:10-04:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-05-13T16:25:15-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: The More Things Change…

By |2019-02-22T10:08:02-05:00February 22nd, 2019|Alhambra Portfolios|

I haven't written a formal asset allocation update since November so this one will be a little bit of catch-up for non-clients as we did make some minor changes in early January. On January 7th we shifted our bond allocation somewhat to reduce duration. Continuing to hold longer-dated bonds at that point essentially meant betting [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – January 2019

By |2019-01-24T17:30:37-05:00January 24th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Politics|

A Return To Normalcy In the first two years after a newly elected President takes office he enacts a major tax cut that primarily benefits the wealthy and significantly raises tariffs on imports. His foreign policy is erratic but generally pulls the country back from foreign commitments. He also works to reduce immigration and roll [...]

Living In The Present

By |2019-01-05T14:14:37-05:00January 5th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It's that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read [...]

Market Week in Review

By |2009-02-07T17:40:16-05:00February 7th, 2009|Economy|

Stocks rallied this week as the Senate neared completion of the economic “stimulus” package and the Treasury Deparment finalized the details of the bank bailout plan. While I find myself wondering how $900 billion worthof politically motivated spending and even more billions to prop up poorly managed banks will stimulate the economy, other market participants seemed [...]

Market Week in Review

By |2009-01-17T17:32:29-05:00January 17th, 2009|Economy|

The steady stock market uptrend since the November lows was broken this week as the bad economic data and bailout uncertainties continued. Market action was dominated by news in the financial sector. JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America all announced more writeoffs this week although JP Morgan at least was able to report a [...]