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Just Who Was The Intended Audience For The Rate Cut?

By |2019-09-04T17:20:30-05:00September 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation. Since cutting the benchmark federal funds range by 25 bps on July 31, in speeches and in other ways Chairman Jay Powell and his group have taken on a more “hawkish” tilt. This isn’t all the way [...]

Gold: Big Difference Which Kind of Hedge It Truly Is

By |2019-08-30T16:16:19-05:00August 30th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t inflation which is driving gold higher, at least not the current levels of inflation. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation calculation, the PCE Deflator, continues to significantly undershoot. Monetary policy explicitly calls for that rate to be consistent around 2%, an outcome policymakers [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-08-29T16:08:52-05:00August 29th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

This is a companion piece to last week's Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T16:45:35-05:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-07-19T18:19:10-05:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper [...]

Inflation Undershoots, Inflation Expectations Sketch Out Growing Downside

By |2019-06-28T17:04:07-05:00June 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the third time in the last five months, inflation expectations have matched record lows. To hear officials and Economists talk, you’d think they were at or nearing record highs. The unemployment rate, after all, is at a 50-year low point which by mainstream reckoning should mean the cusp of an epic wage-driven breakout. According [...]

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