ticking clock

CNY 7: The Gears Behind the Clockface

By |2019-08-05T16:21:39-04:00August 5th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right on cue, the Chinese have restarted “devaluation.” Because no one ever learns, and because trade wars are a conveniently timed distraction, CNY’s dramatic plunge below 7.00 is being written up as currency manipulation. It is manipulation, just nothing like what’s being described. PBOC Governor Yi Gang is a passenger here, not the man pulling [...]

Clocking What Isn’t Chinese Stimulus

By |2019-06-17T16:39:46-04:00June 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the very few central pillars supporting the hopes for a second half rebound was China’s “stimulus.” Since we’ve been conditioned to just accept whatever a central bank does as equal to it, throughout the last thirteen months since the first RRR cut was initiated that one as well as the four which followed [...]

China, Brazil, Nightmare Swaps, and More About December (and what it may mean)

By |2019-01-23T12:32:21-05:00January 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Central bankers will often tell you exactly what you want to know, at least when it comes to their intentions. You can first begin by reading Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz’s 1963 monetary bible A Monetary History. It’s all in there. From it, central banks all over the world have devised technical schemes intended to [...]

Revisiting Hong Kong (For Reasons We Wish We Wouldn’t Have To)

By |2019-01-17T17:45:19-05:00January 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is perhaps the perfect day to review what’s going on in Hong Kong (thanks J. Fraser). I’ll be in Vancouver over the weekend to talk about curves, so why not preface it with a little HKD update. With everyone focused elsewhere, the story of 2017, in my view, wasn’t so big in 2018. For [...]

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