tic

August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

By |2019-10-21T18:08:31-05:00October 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple [...]

Economy Turns Down: Commodity And Producer Prices Like Labor

By |2019-10-07T17:27:39-05:00October 7th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t just you, me, and common sense which were puzzled by the labor shortage of 2018. In his first few months on the job, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell would reference the unemployment rate quite often in setting his view of the economy’s trajectory. As it fell lower and lower, it spiked his expectations [...]

TIC: The Calm (June) Before the Storm (August)

By |2019-08-16T12:29:24-05:00August 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As far as recent times may be concerned, June 2019 wasn’t that bad of a month. Compared to some this year, it was downright uninteresting. Starting with the UST market, there was a plunge in yields (bad sign for global dollar shortage) in the second half of April and throughout May. June saw more steady [...]

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

By |2019-07-17T17:04:15-05:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary [...]

Ticked About TIC: The Accidental Discovery of Perhaps The Big Bottleneck

By |2019-07-17T15:30:38-05:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

From October 2000 to July 2001, the Treasury Department conducted a special survey of users of its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Nearly two decades ago, it had become apparent (to some) just how important international dollar flows were to the overall economic and financial landscape. And not just those of the United States. TIC [...]

What Has Markets Spooked? Probably Something To Do With That Huge Offshore Dollar Hole

By |2019-07-12T18:32:36-05:00July 12th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like a shark smelling blood in the water, I don’t care that the blood is in the water from leaking out of what will be a dead horse, if it isn’t deceased already. I pretty much intend to beat on it one way or another. The issue isn’t just fed funds, it’s why anyone cares [...]

Powell Surrenders: I Told You Last Year It Was A Lie; Or, Here’s Almost The Whole Of It

By |2019-06-19T16:27:39-05:00June 19th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Jay Powell has had his mind changed for him. Why? Not even a year ago he was downplaying things like federal funds. The rise in that one anachronistic rate was inconsistent with a healthy financial system poised for the good times that come with serious economic acceleration. Quite the opposite, actually. To dismiss the obvious [...]

TIC Reveals The Landmine; This Time Is Already Different

By |2019-06-18T16:34:52-05:00June 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve been writing since October when China reopened from that month’s Golden Week holiday that big dollar problems were imminent. You needn’t have taken my word for it, the PBOC said as much. Not directly, of course, but in interpreting the central bank’s anticipated behavior left little doubt.  Over the next few months, more and [...]

From TIC’s Big March Number Right To Powell’s Future Rate Cut(s)

By |2019-05-16T17:24:10-05:00May 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, during the first quarter of this year several key banks announced they had had enough. Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Credit Suisse, as well as others, they all broadcast cuts to key operations. The FICC stuff, or bond trading to put it euphemistically. The very place the world [...]

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