QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

By |2019-11-13T11:10:52-05:00November 13th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work. On the other side, though, there’s not [...]

Gifts of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears

By |2019-08-23T16:39:37-04:00August 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Curiously short on star power, the Jackson Hole gathering this year has already taken an odd turn. It’s been practically subversive. Usually when the Kansas City Fed gets together for these things each and every August, the main attraction is the top central bankers in the major economies. Outside of the Bank of England’s Mark [...]

What If There Was No Punchbowl In The First Place?

By |2019-05-30T18:00:11-04:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The celebration was premature. As usual, people were extrapolating reflation into recovery. Getting relatively better after being really bad is not the same as truly healing. Reflation is a necessary but by itself insufficient condition for normalcy. The latter requires the former as a first step and then needs enough momentum (of opportunity) to carry [...]

Same Planet, Very Different Worlds

By |2019-03-25T17:45:49-04:00March 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

This is really getting out of hand. For the fourth day in a row, unofficially, effective federal funds or EFF remains above IOER. At the same, now the 10-year UST yields less. What was last week pretty concerning stuff before the Fed’s capitulation is this week whatever category lies below. This is not a resumption [...]

Not All Banks are Doing Badly

By |2008-10-01T19:34:58-04:00October 1st, 2008|Economy|

The vast majority of banks in this country are doing fine. They are, in fact, benefiting from the chaos at banks that are failing. Cato has a post which references a story from the WAPO: Many smaller banks said they were actually benefiting from the problems on Wall Street. Deposits are flowing in as customers [...]

Special Market Report – June 12, 2008

By |2008-06-12T17:49:09-04:00June 12th, 2008|Markets|

The last two weeks have been very trying as oil prices have spiked and the stock market has sold off. Our portfolios have fallen back from the highs we set at the end of last month, but our commodity exposure has, as planned, mitigated the damage. I know this development is frustrating, but it is [...]