stock market

Anesthesia Right On Schedule

By |2019-06-20T16:54:35-04:00June 20th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In early January, much of the world was dazed and confused. What the hell just happened? Two weeks before, in the middle of December 2018, Jay Powell stood in front of the microphones confidently declaring his rate hikes justified by an extremely strong economy. Yet, even the stock market had turned against him. When the [...]

What If There Was No Punchbowl In The First Place?

By |2019-05-30T18:00:11-04:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The celebration was premature. As usual, people were extrapolating reflation into recovery. Getting relatively better after being really bad is not the same as truly healing. Reflation is a necessary but by itself insufficient condition for normalcy. The latter requires the former as a first step and then needs enough momentum (of opportunity) to carry [...]

The Transitory Story, I Repeat, The Transitory Story

By |2019-05-22T15:44:29-04:00May 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Understand what the word “transitory” truly means in this context. It is no different than Ben Bernanke saying, essentially, subprime is contained. To the Fed Chairman in early 2007, this one little corner of the mortgage market in an otherwise booming economy was a transitory blip that booming economy would easily withstand. Just eight days [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: The More Things Change…

By |2019-02-22T10:08:02-05:00February 22nd, 2019|Alhambra Portfolios|

I haven't written a formal asset allocation update since November so this one will be a little bit of catch-up for non-clients as we did make some minor changes in early January. On January 7th we shifted our bond allocation somewhat to reduce duration. Continuing to hold longer-dated bonds at that point essentially meant betting [...]

Living In The Present

By |2019-01-05T14:14:37-05:00January 5th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It's that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read [...]

Nothing New Here…Move Along

By |2009-02-23T11:26:04-05:00February 23rd, 2009|Markets|

The stock market is now back near its November lows and the pessimism is as thick as a copy of Keynes General Theory. The “stimulus” package has been deemed either insufficient or overkill depending on your political persuastion, but certainly not stimulating. The joy over the selection of Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary has faded [...]

Nothing New Here….Move Along

By |2009-02-23T02:15:53-05:00February 23rd, 2009|Economy|

The stock market is now back near its November lows and the pessimism is as thick as a copy of Keynes General Theory. The “stimulus” package has been deemed either insufficient or overkill depending on your political persuastion, but certainly not stimulating. The joy over the selection of Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary has faded [...]

Market Week in Review

By |2009-02-07T17:40:16-05:00February 7th, 2009|Economy|

Stocks rallied this week as the Senate neared completion of the economic “stimulus” package and the Treasury Deparment finalized the details of the bank bailout plan. While I find myself wondering how $900 billion worthof politically motivated spending and even more billions to prop up poorly managed banks will stimulate the economy, other market participants seemed [...]

Market Week in Review

By |2009-01-31T19:27:18-05:00January 31st, 2009|Economy|

President Obama, like so many in the Democratic party, idolizes Franklin Roosevelt. He has called for a new New Deal, portions of which are passing through the pork grinder called Congress and spent most of his campaign playing class warrior. In perfect Rooseveltian fashion, he spent the last week tongue lashing Wall Street over their pay [...]

Market Week in Review

By |2009-01-17T17:32:29-05:00January 17th, 2009|Economy|

The steady stock market uptrend since the November lows was broken this week as the bad economic data and bailout uncertainties continued. Market action was dominated by news in the financial sector. JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America all announced more writeoffs this week although JP Morgan at least was able to report a [...]