You Have To Try Really Hard Not To See It

By |2019-11-06T22:11:06-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

In early September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released figures for its non-manufacturing PMI that calmed nervous markets. A few weeks before anyone would start talking about repo, repo operations, and not-QE asset purchases, recession and slowdown fears were already prevalent. It hadn’t been a very good summer to that end, the promised second [...]

More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

By |2019-10-31T20:44:02-04:00October 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off [...]

It All Comes Down To The Service Sector

By |2019-09-05T18:00:57-04:00September 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was framed as a good news/bad news sort of situation. For many, the entire issue of possible recession revolves around the service sector. As far as manufacturing goes, no one will argue otherwise; it’s already in trouble. But it’s a much smaller slice of overall economic activity, and unless we are talking 2008 levels [...]

Germany Struggles On

By |2019-07-24T16:05:18-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis [...]

US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

By |2019-07-24T15:49:08-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view [...]

Downturn Is Here

By |2019-03-22T12:04:14-04:00March 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Confirmation that it wasn’t a shallow Rhine and emissions regulations. Something big is going on in Europe, Germany first. And if the German economy stumbles, particularly its industrial and manufacturing sector, we can reasonably infer its cause – the entire global economy is suffering. As is standard practice, when weak data began showing up last [...]

ISM Services Index

By |2008-09-04T11:33:19-04:00September 4th, 2008|Markets|

The services sector in the US unexpectedly improved in August, sporting a slight gain in growth, according to the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing index. The NMI came in at 50.6%, up from 49.5% in July. Economists had forecast a number at or around 49.3%. Readings above 50% indicate growth, and anything below, contraction. The [...]


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