The T-bill Lie: Even More Completely Full of It

By |2019-05-03T16:37:34-04:00May 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When all this federal funds business started, the effective federal funds (EFF) rate was pretty well established at 16 bps above the RRP “floor.” It had been that way, consistently, all throughout Reflation #3, all throughout 2017. So consistent, that dependable spread was a very solid indication of reflation. As of yesterday, EFF was…16 bps [...]

Federal Funds Rate Is Communicating (Again)

By |2019-04-22T12:27:20-04:00April 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is the shadows what really matter. A big enough problem in them would affect pretty much everything, including far off, out-of-the-way places like federal funds. Thus, if we observe weird things going on there we can infer more serious issues back where it does mean something. In 2013 and 2014, the Federal Reserve was [...]