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China Nastier Number Four

By |2019-09-16T13:38:36-05:00September 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Officials in China seem to be taking a page out of Mario Draghi’s playbook. Before Europe was pushed to the bring of recession, the President of Europe’s central bank would downplay any weakness in the European economy. In 2018 especially, Draghi frequently referred to 2017 as if it was something special. No cause for concern, [...]

China Throws More ‘Stimulus’ At The Wall

By |2019-08-27T12:31:19-05:00August 27th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Earlier this year, Chinese authorities reduced the VAT tax the government charges auto manufacturers. Intended to boost consumption, the levy was reduced from 16% to 13% in the hope automakers would pass along the savings to consumers. Many if not most manufacturers did. The results were immediate, and fleeting. In the month of March 2019, [...]

The Fingerprints of Bumbling (China)

By |2019-08-21T17:46:46-05:00August 21st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a cabal of superpatient supergeniuses, the Chinese tend to play with fire quite often. According to many, the Communists have perfected the art of technocracy and are merely waiting out the impetuously free West. The dollar system will destroy itself (there’s the kernel of truth) allowing a perfectly positioned China to swoop in and [...]

China Repo: Vulnerability or Bottleneck, Risk Aversion and Collateral

By |2019-08-12T16:41:07-05:00August 12th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Toward the end of June, Chinese RMB money markets seemed like they had weathered the worst of it. One month earlier, in late May, regulators had seized Baoshang Bank Co. sending waves of uncertainty rippling through markets in China and around the world. Authorities were quick to declare “nothing to see here”, blaming the bank’s [...]

The PBOC’s Involuntarily Enormous Bet

By |2019-07-19T17:25:27-05:00July 19th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Central bankers are not nimble traders. By their very bureaucratic nature, they leave big muddy footprints all over markets. Sometimes that is by design, a show of force to scare some evil speculators into going straight. Other times, it just can’t be helped. The way it works in China, the autocratic structure doesn’t leave much [...]

Baoshang Isn’t China’s Lehman, So Why Does April 17 Show Up All Over Global Markets?

By |2019-06-24T16:27:12-05:00June 24th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One month ago, on May 24, Chinese regulators stunned the world by announcing the first bank restructuring in modern China’s history. Based in Inner Mongolia, Baoshang Bank was seized because of what the PBOC and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said was “severe credit risk.” Initial reports attempted to link Baoshang’s struggles to financier [...]

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