richard fisher

COT Blue: The Velocity of Capitulation

By |2019-02-11T13:06:32-05:00February 11th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, the CFTC posted its COT data for the first week in 2019. For crude oil, capitulation. For US Treasury bond futures, capitulation. In the latter financial market, unsurprisingly the net market position utterly collapsed during December. From a relatively high (meaning market overall short) +58k contracts that last week in November when everyone [...]

The Bookkeeper’s Pen, But Which Bookkeeper?

By |2019-01-11T18:06:21-05:00January 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the chaotic days of the early “recovery”, those opposed to the Federal Reserve’s response largely fell into the wrong camp. The central bank had done too much, they claimed. Never mind how the first global panic in four generations had developed and then crushed the global economy, such deflation was over to be taken [...]