retail sales

Globally Synchronized, After All

By |2019-07-16T12:49:44-04:00July 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered. More and more, though, it [...]

China’s Managed Decline Manages Another Quarter

By |2019-07-15T13:54:18-04:00July 15th, 2019|Markets|

The latest batch of economic from China featured a little something for everyone. For those thinking about a second half rebound, retail sales gained nearly 10% in June. It was the first time near to double digits since March 2018. At the other end of the spectrum, Real GDP rose just 6.2% year-over-year in the [...]

US IP: May Was A Good Month And It Was Still ‘Manufacturing Recession’

By |2019-06-14T19:00:11-04:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether or not a full-scale recession shows up in the US is an open question. There’s less of one in US industry. The “manufacturing recession” we last saw of Euro$ #3 is becoming clearer as a repeat property in Euro$ #4. According to the Federal Reserve, May was a relatively good month for industry – [...]

China’s Wolf, Not Dragon

By |2019-06-14T17:09:08-04:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Much of the original thesis on economic decoupling surrounded myths of what were believed invulnerable economies. Emerging markets might see some slowing during 2008, but they weren’t supposed to drop off. China was right at the top of everyone’s list, the unstoppable force then transforming the world’s political as well as economic order. In the [...]

Retail Sales (US): Green Shoots Under the 3% Line?

By |2019-06-14T13:07:37-04:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail Sales rose just 3.46% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. The estimate for April was revised substantially higher, now suggesting growth of 5.6%. Altogether, however, consumer spending continues to be unusually weak. How unusual? The 6-month average, a better gauge of growth conditions given the noisy nature of the series, is now below 3% for [...]

Dimmed Hopes In China Cars, Too

By |2019-06-12T17:40:03-04:00June 12th, 2019|Markets|

As noted earlier this week, the world’s two big hopes for the global economy in the second half are pinned on the US labor market continuing to exert its purported strength and Chinese authorities stimulating out of every possible (monetary) opening. Incoming data, however, continues to point to the fallacies embedded within each. The US [...]

Global Doves Expire: China’s Big 3 Stats Put To Rest RRR Myths

By |2019-05-15T12:55:50-04:00May 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Fed has its pause. The ECB is going to conduct another T-LTRO. But of all the central bank responses to the “unexpected” global weakness of late 2018, the Chinese’s was supposed to be the leader. The most forceful pushback against a worldwide downturn was reported to have been the PBOC’s “powerful” RRR cuts. China’s [...]