real personal income excluding transfer receipts

Income Revisions Ironically Detect The BOND ROUT!!! But Not The LABOR SHORTAGE!!!

By |2019-07-29T18:01:16-04:00July 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chairman Powell’s hawkishness, so called, has made its way into the historical revisions for Personal Income estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released today the annual benchmark revisions to NIPA, the National Income and Product Accounts, which apply to Personal Income and Personal Spending. We’ve already seen the results for GDP and underlying data [...]

More and More The Economic Inflection

By |2019-05-31T18:32:05-04:00May 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You do wonder sometimes whether the person responsible for writing these things ever cringes while they do so. Are they ever shocked by a sudden bout of conscience? Then again, most of it is bland boilerplate language and when it’s not the difference is hidden under a maze of intentionally induced complexity or misdirection. The [...]

Incomes And The R-word

By |2019-04-29T18:16:34-04:00April 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The easy answer for “muted” inflation is consumers. Forget the unemployment rate debate. Let’s assume that labor markets are tight. Workers are scarce and companies have to compete, and pay up, to secure labor. Input costs are rising. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee an accelerating CPI or PCE Deflator. There is a final step in the [...]

BEA Backs Up Census; Residual Seasonality Struck A Month Too Soon

By |2019-03-01T12:28:23-05:00March 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the last decade, the US economy has been experiencing “residual seasonality.” It has begun each year unusually weak. For Economists expecting it take off in each and every one, this is more than a thorny contradiction. When it happened again in 2015, at the worst possible moment for the mainstream view, they had finally [...]