rate cuts

The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

By |2019-10-30T20:38:31-04:00October 30th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever [...]

Three (Rate Cuts) and GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

By |2019-10-30T20:31:45-04:00October 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring still more hikes, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them. Expecting the [...]

Labor Data Dependent

By |2019-09-10T17:22:47-04:00September 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right now, everything comes down to the labor market. Does the US economy hang on despite stubborn and evidently non-transitory overseas turmoil cross currents? Or do American consumers rightly confident of the economic situation re-assert themselves via their wallets and deliriously spend the economy back on track? You better believe Fed Chairman Jay Powell will [...]

Is The Negativity Overdone?

By |2019-09-09T18:40:36-04:00September 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s [...]

The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

By |2019-08-13T16:13:21-04:00August 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency [...]

Sure, One and Done

By |2019-08-01T15:35:23-04:00August 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC yesterday reiterated their stance that the economy was strong. But they also hedged. A one-and-done rate cut is one thing, some insurance (allegedly) for keeping the good times rolling. What about QT, though? That’s the funny thing that you can’t help but get stuck on. Not bank reserves, mind you, they’re worthless (perhaps [...]

The Correlations Behind The Rate Cut(s)

By |2019-07-31T12:23:14-04:00July 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In every likelihood, the Federal Reserve today is going to join other central banks around the world who have already cut rates. It is the synchronized signal completing the turn from globally synchronized growth into a globally synchronized downturn. To most people in the United States, at least, this is a puzzling shift.   The [...]