QT

Head Faking In The Empty Zoo: Powell Expands The Balance Sheet (Again)

By |2019-10-08T18:51:40-05:00October 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They remain just as confused as Richard Fisher once was. Back in ’13 while QE3 was still relatively young and QE4 (yes, there were four) practically brand new, the former President of the Dallas Fed worried all those bank reserves had amounted to nothing more than a monetary head fake. In 2011, Ben Bernanke had [...]

Much More Than This Week (TRDKWTAD)

By |2019-09-20T18:45:05-05:00September 20th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the recent release of the Federal Reserve’s projected forecasts, that’s it. It wasn’t one and done like Chairman Powell had initially indicated, this “midcycle adjustment” hits two. And that is it, at least if you believe the current calculations spit out by the Fed’s models. It goes along with Powell’s blunt statement he [...]

Stuck at A: Repo Chaos Isn’t Something New, It’s The Same Baseline

By |2019-09-16T18:15:23-05:00September 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Finally, finally the global bond market stopped going in a straight line. I write often how nothing ever does, but for almost three-quarters of a year the guts of the financial system seemed highly motivated to prove me wrong. Yields plummeted and eurodollar futures prices soared. It is only over the past few weeks that [...]

Sure, One and Done

By |2019-08-01T15:35:23-05:00August 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC yesterday reiterated their stance that the economy was strong. But they also hedged. A one-and-done rate cut is one thing, some insurance (allegedly) for keeping the good times rolling. What about QT, though? That’s the funny thing that you can’t help but get stuck on. Not bank reserves, mind you, they’re worthless (perhaps [...]

Maybe The Grand Celebration For The Early End of QT Starts Tomorrow?

By |2019-07-31T18:13:09-05:00July 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps too much attention was given to “one-and-done”, the knee-jerk disappointment over what everybody is saying was not enough “dovishness.” And while that may have been true as it relates to main star of the puppet show, rate cuts, the FOMC actually did deliver better theater at least with a secondary character. The latest official [...]

Where Doves Are Dreaded

By |2019-03-20T15:48:15-05:00March 20th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If “rate hikes” and QT are the world’s big problem in 2019, then why is the FOMC announcing the end of “rate hikes” and QT failing to have a positive effect? The answer will surprise most people. Central banks, dominated by central bankers who are Economists, meaning statisticians, are always behind. They do not lead. [...]

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