pmi

You Have To Try Really Hard Not To See It

By |2019-11-06T22:11:06-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

In early September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released figures for its non-manufacturing PMI that calmed nervous markets. A few weeks before anyone would start talking about repo, repo operations, and not-QE asset purchases, recession and slowdown fears were already prevalent. It hadn’t been a very good summer to that end, the promised second [...]

Still Stuck In Between

By |2019-11-06T20:58:35-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Note: originally published Friday, Nov 1 There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, [...]

More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

By |2019-10-31T20:44:02-05:00October 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off [...]

More Down In The Downturn

By |2019-10-24T18:15:40-05:00October 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Flash PMI’s from IHS Markit for the US economy were split in October. According to the various sentiment indicators, there’s a little bit of a rebound on the manufacturing side as contrary to the ISM’s estimates for the same sector. Markit reports a sharp uptick in current manufacturing business volumes during this month. The manufacturing [...]

ISM Spoils The Bond Rout!!! Again

By |2019-10-03T17:59:37-05:00October 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second time this week, the ISM managed to burst the bond bear bubble about there being a bond bubble. Who in their right mind would buy especially UST’s at such low yields when the fiscal situation is already a nightmare and becoming more so? Some will even reference falling bid-to-cover ratios which supposedly [...]

No Longer Hanging In, Europe May Have (Been) Broken Down

By |2019-09-23T16:57:03-05:00September 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mario Draghi can thank Jay Powell at his retirement party. The latter being so inept as to allow federal funds, of all things, to take hold of global financial attention, everyone quickly shifted and forgot what a mess the ECB’s QE restart had been. But it’s not really one or the other, is it? Once [...]

It All Comes Down To The Service Sector

By |2019-09-05T18:00:57-05:00September 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was framed as a good news/bad news sort of situation. For many, the entire issue of possible recession revolves around the service sector. As far as manufacturing goes, no one will argue otherwise; it’s already in trouble. But it’s a much smaller slice of overall economic activity, and unless we are talking 2008 levels [...]

Copper Confirmed

By |2019-09-03T19:33:19-05:00September 3rd, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it [...]

Way Beyond The ‘12%’

By |2019-08-22T19:09:38-05:00August 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output. Any minor problems affecting such a small slice would surely be nothing much for the other seven-eights of the economy to overcome. There was no way Yellen’s rate hikes and the booming recovery they [...]

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