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Three (Rate Cuts) and GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

By |2019-10-30T20:31:45-04:00October 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring still more hikes, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them. Expecting the [...]

Income Revisions Ironically Detect The BOND ROUT!!! But Not The LABOR SHORTAGE!!!

By |2019-07-29T18:01:16-04:00July 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chairman Powell’s hawkishness, so called, has made its way into the historical revisions for Personal Income estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released today the annual benchmark revisions to NIPA, the National Income and Product Accounts, which apply to Personal Income and Personal Spending. We’ve already seen the results for GDP and underlying data [...]

GDP And Revisions Highlight The Vulnerabilities

By |2019-07-26T17:05:10-04:00July 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It usually takes them a little while, a couple of benchmark adjustments to better conform to the true shape. Today’s GDP report included the latest revisions to the underlying data. Overall, not much changed. The changes are applied to Q1 2014 and forward, upping Real GDP growth slightly in 2015, adding a little bit more [...]

More and More The Economic Inflection

By |2019-05-31T18:32:05-04:00May 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You do wonder sometimes whether the person responsible for writing these things ever cringes while they do so. Are they ever shocked by a sudden bout of conscience? Then again, most of it is bland boilerplate language and when it’s not the difference is hidden under a maze of intentionally induced complexity or misdirection. The [...]

A First Look At Why Greater Demand For Scapegoats Than Rate Cuts

By |2019-04-01T16:55:18-04:00April 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported data on US Personal Income and Spending that hit every sour note. There was the lowest inflation rate, the deflator to those spending figures, in years as well as the clear need to officially anoint a successor to the Verizon madness. The release [...]

BEA Backs Up Census; Residual Seasonality Struck A Month Too Soon

By |2019-03-01T12:28:23-05:00March 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the last decade, the US economy has been experiencing “residual seasonality.” It has begun each year unusually weak. For Economists expecting it take off in each and every one, this is more than a thorny contradiction. When it happened again in 2015, at the worst possible moment for the mainstream view, they had finally [...]

1st Quarter US GDP Estimate

By |2009-03-17T14:32:13-04:00March 17th, 2009|Markets|

The revised 4th Quarter GDP number was released a couple of weeks ago, highlighting a 6.2% decline in total goods and services produced in the US, which included a 4.3% drop in consumer spending, the most in 28 years. Considering the fact that most economists feel that the first quarter of 2009 will be worse than the [...]