pce deflator

Gold: Big Difference Which Kind of Hedge It Truly Is

By |2019-08-30T16:16:19-04:00August 30th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t inflation which is driving gold higher, at least not the current levels of inflation. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation calculation, the PCE Deflator, continues to significantly undershoot. Monetary policy explicitly calls for that rate to be consistent around 2%, an outcome policymakers [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T16:45:35-04:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds [...]

Inflation Undershoots, Inflation Expectations Sketch Out Growing Downside

By |2019-06-28T17:04:07-04:00June 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the third time in the last five months, inflation expectations have matched record lows. To hear officials and Economists talk, you’d think they were at or nearing record highs. The unemployment rate, after all, is at a 50-year low point which by mainstream reckoning should mean the cusp of an epic wage-driven breakout. According [...]

Another Sign of the Changed Times, The Politics of Inflation

By |2019-04-29T16:58:54-04:00April 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The administration continues to plead for rate cuts. I think they understand the gravity of the situation, if not quite the situation itself. The President’s chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, was back at his old TV home on CNBC today. In the wake of more “muted” inflation figures one quarter of the way through 2019, [...]

A First Look At Why Greater Demand For Scapegoats Than Rate Cuts

By |2019-04-01T16:55:18-04:00April 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported data on US Personal Income and Spending that hit every sour note. There was the lowest inflation rate, the deflator to those spending figures, in years as well as the clear need to officially anoint a successor to the Verizon madness. The release [...]

Fed: We Are, Don’t Get Spooked, Very Happy With Things But We Are Going to Review Our Policies And Tools In the Very Small, Microscopic Chance We’ve Missed Something

By |2019-03-08T17:36:45-05:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last August, the Senate confirmed Richard Clarida for both a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as to be installed as its Vice Chairman. Clarida had been chairman of the Economics department at Columbia as well as working for PIMCO where he had served the investment company as its Global Strategic [...]

The Real Price of Inflation Targeting

By |2019-03-04T16:29:40-05:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While still a professor of Economics at Princeton, future Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was also a Research Associate for the NBER. In 1999, in his capacities with the latter organization, Bernanke advocated for widespread adoption of inflation targeting. At that time, only a few central banks had experimented with it and there wasn’t much [...]

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