payrolls

Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

By |2019-09-06T12:33:28-05:00September 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the [...]

I’d Like To Solve The Puzzle: Nastier Number Four, The New Lows in Germany

By |2019-07-05T16:18:14-05:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The European slump had been a combination of several transitory factors. At least that’s what they had kept saying. ECB officials and staff Economists didn’t use that specific word, so far that’s the exclusive domain of the Federal Reserve. Regardless of semantics, the message was clear: the 2018 economy ended on a sour note but [...]

Post-Landmine Payrolls

By |2019-07-05T12:32:29-05:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never about a single payroll report. Even still, there’s something significant in how the “good” ones aren’t measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the headline is being described as relieving [...]

US IP: May Was A Good Month And It Was Still ‘Manufacturing Recession’

By |2019-06-14T19:00:11-05:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether or not a full-scale recession shows up in the US is an open question. There’s less of one in US industry. The “manufacturing recession” we last saw of Euro$ #3 is becoming clearer as a repeat property in Euro$ #4. According to the Federal Reserve, May was a relatively good month for industry – [...]

Payrolls: Rate Cuts Not Of Their Choice

By |2019-06-07T12:09:23-05:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn’t get anyone too worked up. May 2019’s jobs report, however, isn’t in isolation. The [...]

Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not

By |2019-05-03T12:24:30-05:00May 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still don’t explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation? You can be reasonably excited when the unemployment rate falls below 5%, as it did four years ago. Three point six, however, [...]

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