US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

By |2019-08-15T18:42:26-04:00August 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was [...]

Copper And Oil Walked Out On The Last Puppet Show

By |2019-06-05T16:07:26-04:00June 5th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where have you gone, green shoots? The Fed turned dovish, a bunch of transitory factors, and, above all, so much Chinese stimulus. That’s what got everyone through the winter. Markets were truly harsh to end 2018, a sharp slap in the face after all year the unemployment rate. One of the big ones that seemed [...]

Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

By |2019-04-16T17:40:46-04:00April 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen [...]

Nothing To See Here, It’s Just Everything

By |2019-01-02T17:20:55-05:00January 2nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The politics of oil are complicated, to say the least. There’s any number of important players, from OPEC to North American shale to sanctions. Relating to that last one, the US government has sought to impose serious restrictions upon the Iranian regime. Choking off a major piece of that country’s revenue, and source for dollars, [...]

Intel, ADP and the Indian Enron

By |2009-01-07T18:32:44-05:00January 7th, 2009|Economy|

Several factors conspired to push the DJIA down 245 points today. First came news that Indian outsourcing giant Satyam was cooking the books (via WSJ): The chairman of one of India’s largest information technology companies admitted he concocted key financial results including a fictitious cash balance of more than $1 billion, a revelation that sent [...]

Saudis Won’t Cut Production

By |2008-09-11T20:43:20-04:00September 11th, 2008|Economy|

Cartels rarely work in the long run because they can't be policed. OPEC is no different (via SFGate): Hours after suffering a rare setback in a negotiating session at OPEC's headquarters, Saudi Arabian officials assured world markets on Wednesday that they would ignore the wishes of other cartel members and continue to pump plenty of [...]

August Market Report – Commodity Bull Gore?

By |2008-08-21T12:16:59-04:00August 21st, 2008|Markets|

Is the commodity bull market over? After a recent decline of more than 23% in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, that question is on the minds of many investors, like us, who have benefited from higher commodity prices. Oil is down from $147 to about $114 in the last month, natural gas down 40%, corn [...]


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