monetary policy

The Obligatory Europe QE Review

By |2019-09-12T18:09:08-05:00September 12th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If Mario Draghi wanted to wow them, this wasn’t it. Maybe he couldn’t, handcuffed already by what seems to have been significant dissent in the ranks. And not just the Germans this time. Widespread dissatisfaction with what is now an idea whose time may have finally arrived. There really isn’t anything to this QE business. [...]

Your Unofficial Europe QE Preview

By |2019-09-11T17:59:17-05:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The thing about R* is mostly that it doesn’t really make much sense when you stop and think about it; which you aren’t meant to do. It is a reaction to unanticipated reality, a world that has turned out very differently than it “should” have. Central bankers are our best and brightest, allegedly, they certainly [...]

Europe’s Further Confirmation(s)

By |2019-08-14T17:08:18-05:00August 14th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The key takeaway from Europe’s economic data dump today isn’t that the whole Continental economy is poised on the verge of recession, though that’s thrust of what’s being written about most. The reason is simple; this is all highly unexpected in the mainstream. Going by official accounts alone, there was never a hint of trouble [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T16:45:35-05:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds [...]

What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

By |2019-07-23T18:31:49-05:00July 23rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-07-19T18:19:10-05:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper [...]

Anesthesia Right On Schedule

By |2019-06-20T16:54:35-05:00June 20th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In early January, much of the world was dazed and confused. What the hell just happened? Two weeks before, in the middle of December 2018, Jay Powell stood in front of the microphones confidently declaring his rate hikes justified by an extremely strong economy. Yet, even the stock market had turned against him. When the [...]

What If There Was No Punchbowl In The First Place?

By |2019-05-30T18:00:11-05:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The celebration was premature. As usual, people were extrapolating reflation into recovery. Getting relatively better after being really bad is not the same as truly healing. Reflation is a necessary but by itself insufficient condition for normalcy. The latter requires the former as a first step and then needs enough momentum (of opportunity) to carry [...]

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