Way Beyond The ‘12%’

By |2019-08-22T19:09:38-04:00August 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output. Any minor problems affecting such a small slice would surely be nothing much for the other seven-eights of the economy to overcome. There was no way Yellen’s rate hikes and the booming recovery they [...]

How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

By |2019-06-03T12:18:46-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the [...]