mario draghi

Europe’s Further Confirmation(s)

By |2019-08-14T17:08:18-04:00August 14th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The key takeaway from Europe’s economic data dump today isn’t that the whole Continental economy is poised on the verge of recession, though that’s thrust of what’s being written about most. The reason is simple; this is all highly unexpected in the mainstream. Going by official accounts alone, there was never a hint of trouble [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T16:45:35-04:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds [...]

Europe Promises More ‘Stimulus’ Seven Years After Draghi’s Promise For ‘Stimulus’

By |2019-07-25T17:50:28-04:00July 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is ironic that the setting for his speech was London. The UK, of course, never gave up the pound in favor of adopting the euro. Still, as the years drag on the biggest menace to Europe’s common currency isn’t a profligate Greek government nor the unfavorable productivity of Club Med. The euro may not [...]

Europeans First to Reverse: Draghi Warned Draghi Seventeen Months Ago

By |2019-06-18T12:07:17-04:00June 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the basis for rational analysis, it was a very public admission of bias and error. We don’t know why inflation ultimately will do what we believe it will, they said, we just believe that it will so you should, too. It sounds ludicrous, but it is actually very much in keeping with standard [...]

The (Fake) Recovery Behind Record Low Bund Yields

By |2019-06-07T16:09:13-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

No Federal Reserve Chairman under its current configuration can say QE didn’t work. Those words will never pass the lips of whoever it may be occupying that position. The world’s bond markets, however, are trying very hard to make this resistance as uncomfortable as possible. The one thing central bankers here along with everywhere else [...]

As Europe Keeps Falling, The Implications For Europe And Everyone Else

By |2019-05-17T12:17:22-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In late March, as global pessimism was renewed in the world’s bond markets, ECB President Mario Draghi appeared as he always does to urge optimism. Yes, Europe’s economy in particular didn’t finish 2018 as he had been expecting. But a soft patch, Draghi said, wouldn’t necessarily “foreshadow [a] serious slump.” The question on the minds [...]

Global Doves Expire: A Hundred Years of US IP Give Bond Market Another Win

By |2019-05-15T16:34:54-04:00May 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has been maintaining statistics on American industry for nearly as long as there has been a Federal Reserve. The first entry in the data series on Industrial Production is for the month of January ’19. Not 2019 but 1919. With over a hundred years of relatively consistent data, matching up very well [...]

What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

By |2019-05-07T11:59:32-04:00May 7th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who [...]

Only Partial Springtime Sentiment Shift, ECB Edition

By |2019-04-17T17:39:02-04:00April 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At last week’s ECB’s press conference, the central bank’s President Mario Draghi was both downbeat and upbeat. As to the former, he acknowledged that Europe’s economy wasn’t working out the way they’d all hoped (and repeatedly promised). Despite the disappointment, Draghi wasn’t completely deterred. This growth scare wasn’t really European, he said. China, trade, and [...]