liquidity preferences

Jay Powell Is In The Way (Literally, for the UST Curve)

By |2019-02-27T12:41:22-05:00February 27th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early in May 2013, the word “taper” exploded into the mainstream. It was everywhere, scarcely an article written or news story pieced together which hadn't included the term (even though Ben Bernanke never actually said it). The so-called tantrum spread like wildfire simply because of what it represented, the very thing everyone had been waiting [...]

Finally Some Real Data…For November

By |2019-02-01T15:45:57-05:00February 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown. However, since nobody follows it and the figures relate to a lot that’s beyond the US economy it doesn’t count in the mainstream view. That’s a shame [...]

Three For One In China Still Yields A Minus Situation

By |2019-01-25T17:57:35-05:00January 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A couple of new developments in China that are worth commenting on. First, what everyone is calling a stealth QE. It isn’t. The central bank bill swap program is instead designed for two purposes at once, neither of which will follow along like an LSAP. The intent in doing this specifically right now suggests something [...]


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