labor shortage

Weakening Labor Market Now In All The Data

By |2019-08-06T12:10:20-05:00August 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The JOLTS series had always been a seemingly superfluous set of labor numbers for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The agency wanted to go deeper into employment when it originally presented these other series in 2002. The unemployment rate seemed accurate enough, but it came at the labor market solely from the view of [...]

Some Seriousness In The Silly Beige

By |2019-07-18T18:30:57-05:00July 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I confess to following the Beige Book lately for mostly entertainment purposes. It was always an exercise in intellectual vanity, an opportunity for Fed Presidents to cram into it their own biases. But to see the FOMC just abandon the LABOR SHORTAGE!!! like they have, that’s not strictly about amusement; though it is to some [...]

Bills, Beige, And the Consequences of the Disappeared Labor Shortage

By |2019-06-06T12:50:36-05:00June 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is everyone saying so simply because [...]

Incomes And The R-word

By |2019-04-29T18:16:34-05:00April 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The easy answer for “muted” inflation is consumers. Forget the unemployment rate debate. Let’s assume that labor markets are tight. Workers are scarce and companies have to compete, and pay up, to secure labor. Input costs are rising. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee an accelerating CPI or PCE Deflator. There is a final step in the [...]

The Global Reach of Kuroda’s Premature Celebrations

By |2019-02-22T12:43:06-05:00February 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate isn’t just misleading in the US, though the gap between what it suggests here and what isn’t happening is now enormous. This idea of a labor shortage, or LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! as each case may be, was itself as global as synchronized growth when it showed up in later 2017. There were stories [...]

Hall of Mirrors, Where’d The Labor Shortage Go?

By |2019-01-16T17:17:29-05:00January 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today was supposed to see the release of the Census Bureau’s retail trade report, a key data set pertaining to the (alarming) state of American consumers, therefore workers by extension (income). With the federal government in partial shutdown, those numbers will be delayed until further notice. In their place we will have to manage with [...]

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