labor market

From JOLTS Series Shift To Series of Rate Cuts

By |2019-10-09T12:29:58-05:00October 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve said all along that they would be dragged into them kicking and screaming. After all, the Federal Reserve undertook its last rate hike in December 2018 – just as the markets were making clear he was completely mistaken in his view of the economy. What followed was the ridiculous “Fed pause” which pretty much [...]

Economy Turns Down: Commodity And Producer Prices Like Labor

By |2019-10-07T17:27:39-05:00October 7th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t just you, me, and common sense which were puzzled by the labor shortage of 2018. In his first few months on the job, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell would reference the unemployment rate quite often in setting his view of the economy’s trajectory. As it fell lower and lower, it spiked his expectations [...]

Why The Japanese Are Suddenly Messing With YCC

By |2019-10-03T19:01:36-05:00October 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world’s attention was fixated on US$ repo for once, the Bank of Japan held a policy meeting and turned in an even more “dovish” performance. Likely the global central bank plan had been to combine the Fed’s second rate cut with what amounted to a simultaneous Japanese pledge for more “stimulus” in October. [...]

Payrolls: Data Dependence Depends on Either/Or

By |2019-10-03T18:56:25-05:00October 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The ritual of payroll Friday really is a silly one. Everyone and the Fed claims to be data dependent and given the place the BLS is given in the hierarchy of data this one should be scrutinized heavily. But what sort of scrutiny? September 2019’s payroll report doesn’t fit neatly into clean, all-or-nothing interpretations. To [...]

Consumers Have To or Want To with Revolving Credit?

By |2019-09-11T17:00:04-05:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the [...]

Labor Data Dependent

By |2019-09-10T17:22:47-05:00September 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right now, everything comes down to the labor market. Does the US economy hang on despite stubborn and evidently non-transitory overseas turmoil cross currents? Or do American consumers rightly confident of the economic situation re-assert themselves via their wallets and deliriously spend the economy back on track? You better believe Fed Chairman Jay Powell will [...]

Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

By |2019-09-06T12:33:28-05:00September 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the [...]

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