jgb

Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

By |2019-08-26T16:42:01-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s [...]

Factoring the Lumps in the (global) Slump

By |2019-08-09T19:15:28-04:00August 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The British manufacturing sector pulled the English economy into contraction for the first time since 2012. Real GDP declined by 0.2% Q/Q in the second quarter of 2019, another minus sign to add to the growing global list. Goods production fell sharply, down 2.3% in Q2 from Q1. It was the biggest decline since 2009. [...]

Yield Plunge: Running Out of Dollars, and Excuses

By |2019-08-05T17:56:07-04:00August 5th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As of today’s close, there are only 22 trading days in the entire history of Japan’s government bonds (JGB) where the yield (or “yield”) on its 10-year paper has been more negative. Those 22 all came clustered together in June and July 2016. In other words, Japan’s bond market is today comparable only to that [...]

Some Real Hope Appears In Japan, Of All Places

By |2019-07-19T12:02:40-04:00July 19th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are things to feel optimistic about. I’ve been pegged as a doom and gloomer, and so long as things remain as they are, I don’t see what’s wrong about it. Long term, however, I’m as optimistic as anyone. There’s a gigantic wave of economic growth and prosperity just waiting to be unleashed – the [...]

The Forced Exile Of Bond Vigilantes

By |2019-04-08T15:35:18-04:00April 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan is the very model of fiscal irresponsibility. If ever there was a bond vigilante, surely they would have a Japanese address. At the end of what was the Bank of Japan’s 133rd fiscal year, on March 31, 2018, Japan’s central bank reported total assets of ¥528,285,679,854,140. Of which, ¥448,326,107,324,120 was Japanese government bonds (JGB). [...]

Same Planet, Very Different Worlds

By |2019-03-25T17:45:49-04:00March 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

This is really getting out of hand. For the fourth day in a row, unofficially, effective federal funds or EFF remains above IOER. At the same, now the 10-year UST yields less. What was last week pretty concerning stuff before the Fed’s capitulation is this week whatever category lies below. This is not a resumption [...]

Jay Powell Is In The Way (Literally, for the UST Curve)

By |2019-02-27T12:41:22-05:00February 27th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early in May 2013, the word “taper” exploded into the mainstream. It was everywhere, scarcely an article written or news story pieced together which hadn't included the term (even though Ben Bernanke never actually said it). The so-called tantrum spread like wildfire simply because of what it represented, the very thing everyone had been waiting [...]