jay powell

The Frights of Repo-ween: Technical Things and Scaredy-cats

By |2019-10-31T20:50:18-04:00October 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not the level of bank reserves. It never was. QT was always a distraction. As I’ve said from the very beginning, the same thing the Fed’s researchers (rather than top policymakers) will say you if you ask them, the level of bank reserves only tells us what the Fed is doing. It does not, [...]

The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

By |2019-10-30T20:38:31-04:00October 30th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever [...]

Three (Rate Cuts) and GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

By |2019-10-30T20:31:45-04:00October 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring still more hikes, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them. Expecting the [...]

Labor Data Dependent

By |2019-09-10T17:22:47-04:00September 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right now, everything comes down to the labor market. Does the US economy hang on despite stubborn and evidently non-transitory overseas turmoil cross currents? Or do American consumers rightly confident of the economic situation re-assert themselves via their wallets and deliriously spend the economy back on track? You better believe Fed Chairman Jay Powell will [...]

Just Who Was The Intended Audience For The Rate Cut?

By |2019-09-04T17:20:30-04:00September 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation. Since cutting the benchmark federal funds range by 25 bps on July 31, in speeches and in other ways Chairman Jay Powell and his group have taken on a more “hawkish” tilt. This isn’t all the way [...]

Gold: Big Difference Which Kind of Hedge It Truly Is

By |2019-08-30T16:16:19-04:00August 30th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t inflation which is driving gold higher, at least not the current levels of inflation. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation calculation, the PCE Deflator, continues to significantly undershoot. Monetary policy explicitly calls for that rate to be consistent around 2%, an outcome policymakers [...]

Gifts of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears

By |2019-08-23T16:39:37-04:00August 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Curiously short on star power, the Jackson Hole gathering this year has already taken an odd turn. It’s been practically subversive. Usually when the Kansas City Fed gets together for these things each and every August, the main attraction is the top central bankers in the major economies. Outside of the Bank of England’s Mark [...]

The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

By |2019-08-13T16:13:21-04:00August 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency [...]

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