inverted curve

The 10s Back To A 1-handle Again; New Information That Isn’t New

By |2019-07-02T18:45:41-04:00July 2nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed below 2% for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President. Having flirted with that level several times over the past week, today the most-watched interest rate on the planet finally breached this one startling round number. And it comes during a week which by every conventional [...]

Curve Sanity (Not What Most People Want To Hear or See)

By |2019-06-13T18:47:44-04:00June 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rate cuts will be insurance against whatever “trade wars” will throw at the global economy. That’s the current line from monetary officials in the US, anyway. The real question to ask is, how would they know? Starting with trade wars. Is that really what’s behind all this? The evolution of the curves told you everything [...]

Curve-sanity

By |2019-06-12T19:01:18-04:00June 12th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are those which are so very clear in their disingenuousness – to the point of overdoing it and becoming obviously absurd. In the increasingly desperate rush to downplay the headlong race to rate cuts, this one’s up there: Eurodollar futures traders, having decided that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut the fed funds [...]

What Kind Of Risks/Mess Are We Looking At?

By |2019-06-03T18:08:37-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that the mainstream isn’t taking this all very seriously isn’t anything new. But how serious are things really? That’s pretty much the only question anyone should be asking. What are the curves telling us about what’s now just over the horizon? I hesitate to use 2008 comparisons too often because many people immediately [...]