Inventory

The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

By |2019-10-30T20:38:31-05:00October 30th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever [...]

US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

By |2019-08-15T18:42:26-05:00August 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was [...]

COT Black: Not Transitory, The Landmine In Crude Means A Lot More Than Crude

By |2019-08-07T10:57:12-05:00August 7th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Supply glut or demand disappearing? We are back to asking that question again after four years. In late 2014 and early 2015, the conventional answer was shale. The US had begun producing so much oil there was a glut of supply. Without an outlet for it, all the crude began building up primarily in Cushing, [...]

Real Estate Perfectly Sums Up The Rate Cuts

By |2019-07-24T17:33:19-05:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s only a confusing when you just accept the booming economy of the unemployment rate. From this perspective, 2018 was, and more so 2019 is, a downright conundrum. By all mainstream accounts, this just shouldn’t be happening. Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, [...]

Durably Sideways

By |2019-04-25T17:23:03-05:00April 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted. None of this, apparently, will include any information gleaned from the comprehensive 2017 [...]

COT Black Is Partially Back With A Lot of Towels

By |2019-02-06T16:23:54-05:00February 6th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in a bit of a tough spot. Being subject to the federal government shutdown meant shutting down the various Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for all the products listed on the exchange. There are a lot of them. Though the government and therefore the CFTC has reopened, it [...]

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