interest rates

Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

By |2019-09-06T12:33:28-04:00September 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the [...]

Just Who Was The Intended Audience For The Rate Cut?

By |2019-09-04T17:20:30-04:00September 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation. Since cutting the benchmark federal funds range by 25 bps on July 31, in speeches and in other ways Chairman Jay Powell and his group have taken on a more “hawkish” tilt. This isn’t all the way [...]

The Corroboration and Costs of Fear Gold

By |2019-08-27T17:02:18-04:00August 27th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gold is the ultimate hedge, but it is far from perfect. Unlike, say, sovereign bonds there should be no expectation for a negatively correlated price. You can buy a UST or German bund even at negative yields and at least expect the price to rise when things are at their worst. Flight to safety or [...]

Gifts of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears

By |2019-08-23T16:39:37-04:00August 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Curiously short on star power, the Jackson Hole gathering this year has already taken an odd turn. It’s been practically subversive. Usually when the Kansas City Fed gets together for these things each and every August, the main attraction is the top central bankers in the major economies. Outside of the Bank of England’s Mark [...]

Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

By |2019-08-13T13:01:05-04:00August 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else. This was the scenario increasingly [...]

All You Really Needed Was the Yield Curve

By |2019-08-12T18:14:30-04:00August 12th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is absolutely amazing the lengths people will go to in order to deny the most straightforward and obvious explanation; to torture and twist plain evidence. That’s the thing about rationalizing, though. The narrative usually matters more than the facts. Take tax reform and interest rates. The problem with tax reform wasn’t actually tax reform. [...]

There’s Dollar In The Rate Cut, But Not Nearly Enough Dollar

By |2019-07-31T16:54:04-04:00July 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The insurance rate cut has been issued. Telling the assembled members of the press this is nothing more than a “mid-cycle adjustment”, Chairman Powell was cautious not to betray too much concern. The first rule of central banking is not to make anything worse. Subprime must always be contained. Yet, he has the unenviable task [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-07-19T18:19:10-04:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper [...]

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

By |2019-07-17T17:04:15-04:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary [...]

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