Still Stuck In Between

By |2019-11-06T20:58:35-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Note: originally published Friday, Nov 1 There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, [...]

Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

By |2019-08-26T16:42:01-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s [...]

The Real Power Behind Currency Wars

By |2019-08-06T16:28:08-04:00August 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s another one of those things that just blows up the whole convention, another pretty clear sign that the mainstream has it all backward. We are seeing it play out right now with China. The Chinese are being accused of unfair currency manipulation, the sort of “competitive devaluation” that fills whole chapters in the Keynesian [...]

China’s Big Risk(s): Running Out of Room To Tackle

By |2019-07-29T12:42:08-04:00July 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese simply did what every Economics textbook currently in print says you are supposed to do. When confronted with a downturn, no matter its size you borrow your way through it. In fact, it says the greater the contraction the more you need to lean on finance. The neo-Keynesian model is unyielding on the [...]

Manufacturing Cross-Currents

By |2019-06-26T12:49:37-04:00June 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

ACT Research, the leading publisher of commercial vehicle industry data in North America, reported last week that freight rates in for-hire trucking had declined in May. It was the fourth month in row when prices had been pressured. More and more, there is a downturn growing in the transportation sector. Commenting on freight rates, Tim [...]

Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

By |2019-04-16T17:40:46-04:00April 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen [...]

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

By |2019-03-19T16:14:36-04:00March 19th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6. That’s up from -24.7 back in October, though sentiment had [...]