industrial production

A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

By |2019-11-07T16:22:14-05:00November 7th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like [...]

The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go

By |2019-10-18T18:25:42-04:00October 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s growing troubles go way back long before trade wars ever showed up. It was Euro$ #2 that set this course in motion, and then Euro$ #3 which proved the country’s helplessness. It proved it not just to anyone willing to honestly evaluate the situation, it also established the danger to one key faction of [...]

Synchronizing Global Industry

By |2019-10-17T17:59:56-04:00October 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not that they are different types, these are only differences in time and timing. As I wrote yesterday, the US economy is on the same spectrum following in behind Europe’s lengthy head start. American Industrial Production peaked a year later and only now has turned negative year-over-year, while European Industrial Production peaked way back [...]

The Very Definition of Serious Data: When US IP Turns Negative

By |2019-10-16T18:18:31-04:00October 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

December 16, 2015, was perhaps the perfect synopsis of Janet Yellen’s mercifully brief tenure. First Ben Bernanke and then Yellen had spent 2014 telling everyone the US economy was in more danger of overheating (best jobs market in decades, they said) and therefore not only would the FOMC taper and terminate QE there would be [...]

The Scientism of Trade Wars

By |2019-10-09T10:59:05-04:00October 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One year ago, last October, the IMF published the update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2018. Like many, the organization began to talk more about trade wars and protectionism. It had become a topic of conversation more than concern. Couched as only downside risks, the IMF still didn’t think the fuss would amount [...]

Why The Japanese Are Suddenly Messing With YCC

By |2019-10-03T19:01:36-04:00October 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world’s attention was fixated on US$ repo for once, the Bank of Japan held a policy meeting and turned in an even more “dovish” performance. Likely the global central bank plan had been to combine the Fed’s second rate cut with what amounted to a simultaneous Japanese pledge for more “stimulus” in October. [...]

China Nastier Number Four

By |2019-09-16T13:38:36-04:00September 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Officials in China seem to be taking a page out of Mario Draghi’s playbook. Before Europe was pushed to the bring of recession, the President of Europe’s central bank would downplay any weakness in the European economy. In 2018 especially, Draghi frequently referred to 2017 as if it was something special. No cause for concern, [...]

A Bigger Boat

By |2019-09-10T12:42:43-04:00September 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just [...]

US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

By |2019-08-15T18:42:26-04:00August 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was [...]

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