IHS Markit

Somehow Still Decent European Descent

By |2019-10-25T18:40:18-05:00October 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How times have changed. In the middle of 2018, we were told the risks to the global economy were all tilted to the upside. If central bankers weren’t careful, they chanced an uncontrollable inflationary breakout, the kind that would make the last few years of the 2010’s look too much like the 1970’s. Always eager [...]

More Down In The Downturn

By |2019-10-24T18:15:40-05:00October 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Flash PMI’s from IHS Markit for the US economy were split in October. According to the various sentiment indicators, there’s a little bit of a rebound on the manufacturing side as contrary to the ISM’s estimates for the same sector. Markit reports a sharp uptick in current manufacturing business volumes during this month. The manufacturing [...]

No Longer Hanging In, Europe May Have (Been) Broken Down

By |2019-09-23T16:57:03-05:00September 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mario Draghi can thank Jay Powell at his retirement party. The latter being so inept as to allow federal funds, of all things, to take hold of global financial attention, everyone quickly shifted and forgot what a mess the ECB’s QE restart had been. But it’s not really one or the other, is it? Once [...]

Way Beyond The ‘12%’

By |2019-08-22T19:09:38-05:00August 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output. Any minor problems affecting such a small slice would surely be nothing much for the other seven-eights of the economy to overcome. There was no way Yellen’s rate hikes and the booming recovery they [...]

Germany Struggles On

By |2019-07-24T16:05:18-05:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis [...]

US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

By |2019-07-24T15:49:08-05:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view [...]

Japan’s Bellwether On Nasty #4

By |2019-06-21T17:01:43-05:00June 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One reason why Japanese bond yields are approaching records like their German counterparts is the global economy indicated in Japan’s economic accounts. As in Germany, Japan is an outward facing system. It relies on the concept of global growth for marginal changes. Therefore, if the global economy is coming up short, we’d see it in [...]

Behind The Blame Game, A Nastier #4

By |2019-06-21T11:57:48-05:00June 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After what is all but certain to be the final “rate hike” in this cycle, Bloomberg reported that President Trump had previously explored all possible legal ramifications of demoting Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. The issue has become a major one, in the media, anyway, now that Mr. Powell has indicated his error. There will [...]

How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

By |2019-06-03T12:18:46-05:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the [...]

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