housing

Downward Home Prices In The Downturn, Too

By |2019-10-24T19:03:26-05:00October 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau reported today New Home Sales remained at a better than 700k SAAR in September following the big jump over the previous few months. Though the number was slightly lower last month than the month before, it wasn’t meaningfully less. As discussed yesterday, while that might seem the Fed’s rate cut psychology combined [...]

Macro Housing: Bargains and Discounts Appear

By |2019-10-23T16:50:19-05:00October 23rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While things go wrong for Jay Powell in repo, they are going right in housing. Sort of. It’s more than cliché that the real estate sector is interest rate sensitive. It surely is, and much of the Fed’s monetary policy figuratively banks on it. When policymakers talk about interest rate stimulus, they largely mean the [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

By |2019-10-10T15:30:50-05:00October 10th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Markets|

When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn't waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I've related in these missives before, he called those things "well-worried". His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into [...]

GDP And Revisions Highlight The Vulnerabilities

By |2019-07-26T17:05:10-05:00July 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It usually takes them a little while, a couple of benchmark adjustments to better conform to the true shape. Today’s GDP report included the latest revisions to the underlying data. Overall, not much changed. The changes are applied to Q1 2014 and forward, upping Real GDP growth slightly in 2015, adding a little bit more [...]

Real Estate Perfectly Sums Up The Rate Cuts

By |2019-07-24T17:33:19-05:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s only a confusing when you just accept the booming economy of the unemployment rate. From this perspective, 2018 was, and more so 2019 is, a downright conundrum. By all mainstream accounts, this just shouldn’t be happening. Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, [...]

What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

By |2019-07-23T18:31:49-05:00July 23rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one [...]

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-05:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. [...]

Three-For-One In Poor Housing Data

By |2019-05-21T12:16:49-05:00May 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We all know the shorthand. The Federal Reserve influences if not controls economic activity by raising and lowering the federal funds apparatus. Reducing the monetary policy targets is stimulus because everyone loves lower interest costs. Raising them therefore has the opposite effect. More direct and visible consequences are supposed to be observed first in the [...]

GDP: Deja Vu

By |2019-04-26T12:35:15-05:00April 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Real GDP growth in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 was much better than expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Most analysts were expecting somewhere around 2.3% to 2.5%. Considering mounting uncertainties and growing fears, in the face [...]

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