hours worked

Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

By |2019-08-26T16:42:01-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s [...]

Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not

By |2019-05-03T12:24:30-04:00May 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still don’t explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation? You can be reasonably excited when the unemployment rate falls below 5%, as it did four years ago. Three point six, however, [...]

The Global Reach of Kuroda’s Premature Celebrations

By |2019-02-22T12:43:06-05:00February 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate isn’t just misleading in the US, though the gap between what it suggests here and what isn’t happening is now enormous. This idea of a labor shortage, or LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! as each case may be, was itself as global as synchronized growth when it showed up in later 2017. There were stories [...]

Economic Report: 4th Quarter Productivity

By |2009-02-05T11:43:48-05:00February 5th, 2009|Markets|

Productivity, or output divided by hours worked, in the US non-farm business sector increased to a 3.2% annual rate over the last three months of the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This number is a huge positive, since economists had forecast a much smaller 1.1% increase, but it is probably due to the fact that [...]