global trade

The Real Boom Potential

By |2019-11-08T16:08:52-05:00November 8th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today [...]

Is The Negativity Overdone?

By |2019-09-09T18:40:36-04:00September 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s [...]

Copper Confirmed

By |2019-09-03T19:33:19-04:00September 3rd, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it [...]

Germany Struggles On

By |2019-07-24T16:05:18-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis [...]

Precarious Optimism As The Downgrades Confirm Infection

By |2019-07-23T16:57:18-04:00July 23rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to IMF, “global growth remains subdued.” Since it was supposed to be roaring by now, this qualifies as a substantial downgrade. Financial positions were staked out on the premise there wouldn’t be one, certainly not a disappointment coming this soon long before the breakout could actually happen. That’s why there are downside risks in [...]

The Lying Statistics Behind Globally Synchronized Growth, And What It Could Mean For The Globally Synchronized Downturn

By |2019-07-12T16:08:40-04:00July 12th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Numbers really don’t tell us much all by themselves. Context always matters. That’s why 19th century British statesman Benjamin Disraeli claimed there are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics. Numbers employed in isolation are either misleading or useless. In the 20th century, Darrell Huff wrote in his classic How To Lie With [...]

Contracting Factories, Curiously Rebounding Inbound Cars, And the Confirmed End of Decoupling

By |2019-07-03T11:52:14-04:00July 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US manufacturing sector may not be in as bad a shape as its German or Japanese counterparts, though it appears to be catching up on the downside. The Census Bureau reports today that new orders for all types of goods in all industries fell 1.6% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. This was the first [...]

Commodities And The Future Of China’s Stall

By |2019-06-10T18:49:51-04:00June 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Commodity prices continued to fall last month. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet catalog, non-energy commodity prices accelerated to the downside. Falling 9.4% on average in May 2019 when compared to average prices in May 2018, it was the largest decline since the depths of Euro$ #3 in February 2016. Base metal prices (excluding [...]

All Of US Trade, Both Ways, And Much, Much More Than The Past Few Months

By |2019-06-06T19:00:55-04:00June 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The media quickly picked up on Jay Powell’s comments this week from Chicago. Much less talked about was why he was in that particular city. The Federal Reserve has been conducting what it claims is an exhaustive review of its monetary policies. Officials have been very quick to say they aren’t unhappy with them, no, [...]