global downturn

Not Buying The New Stimulus

By |2019-03-07T17:30:23-05:00March 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates. The reaction to this [...]

The Real Reason Why Stop/Go Is Back To Stop Again

By |2019-03-05T18:31:57-05:00March 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These things have typically started in global trade. This makes sense given what we are dealing with are intermittent problems in global money. Quite simply, you can’t trade if you can’t get any. Therefore, the more acute the dollar shortage the more disruptive to the global merchandise economy. The one exception to this pattern was [...]

BEA Backs Up Census; Residual Seasonality Struck A Month Too Soon

By |2019-03-01T12:28:23-05:00March 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the last decade, the US economy has been experiencing “residual seasonality.” It has begun each year unusually weak. For Economists expecting it take off in each and every one, this is more than a thorny contradiction. When it happened again in 2015, at the worst possible moment for the mainstream view, they had finally [...]

COT Black Is Partially Back With A Lot of Towels

By |2019-02-06T16:23:54-05:00February 6th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in a bit of a tough spot. Being subject to the federal government shutdown meant shutting down the various Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for all the products listed on the exchange. There are a lot of them. Though the government and therefore the CFTC has reopened, it [...]

Finally Some Real Data…For November

By |2019-02-01T15:45:57-05:00February 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown. However, since nobody follows it and the figures relate to a lot that’s beyond the US economy it doesn’t count in the mainstream view. That’s a shame [...]

It’s Not That There Might Be One, It’s That There Might Be Another One

By |2019-01-30T11:59:57-05:00January 30th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a tense exchange. When even politicians can sense that there’s trouble brewing, there really is trouble brewing. Typically the last to figure these things out, if parliamentarians are up in arms it already isn’t good, to put it mildly. Well, not quite the last to know, there are always central bankers faithfully pulling [...]

Repeating The Worst Parts of 2014, EM Version

By |2019-01-29T13:10:51-05:00January 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As Argentina’s peso careened toward oblivion, the country’s government begged IMF officials for more money. The organization in June 2018 had already agreed to a bailout expected to total more than $50 billion over three years, the largest in the fund's history. But it wasn’t working, and as the currency crisis accelerated toward the end [...]

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