global dollar shortage

There’s No S-L-R In R-E-P-O

By |2019-10-29T20:18:14-05:00October 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon has been running around Washington claiming that mid-September’s repo rumble was the result of the post-crisis regulatory environment. He now says that his bank had the spare cash and was willing to cash in on double digit repo rates but it was government rules which prevented that from happening. It’s [...]

Somehow Still Decent European Descent

By |2019-10-25T18:40:18-05:00October 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How times have changed. In the middle of 2018, we were told the risks to the global economy were all tilted to the upside. If central bankers weren’t careful, they chanced an uncontrollable inflationary breakout, the kind that would make the last few years of the 2010’s look too much like the 1970’s. Always eager [...]

The Spread of Collateral, Credit, and Spreads

By |2019-10-23T18:28:15-05:00October 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When we talk about money dealers (not just primary dealers) and liquidity, we aren’t just zeroing in on the repo market. Money market conditions such as what we can observe in the part of the global repo market that ends up hitting the tape can be helpful in assessing overall liquidity. It isn’t, however, the [...]

King’s Speech

By |2019-10-21T17:58:33-05:00October 21st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After having gotten one bailout terribly wrong, when she takes over at the European central bank Christine Lagarde is set follow in the traditional path of her predecessors like Mario Draghi who keep moving up no matter what level of disaster they leave in their wake. Crafting the biggest national “rescue” in history while leading [...]

The Very Definition of Serious Data: When US IP Turns Negative

By |2019-10-16T18:18:31-05:00October 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

December 16, 2015, was perhaps the perfect synopsis of Janet Yellen’s mercifully brief tenure. First Ben Bernanke and then Yellen had spent 2014 telling everyone the US economy was in more danger of overheating (best jobs market in decades, they said) and therefore not only would the FOMC taper and terminate QE there would be [...]

Humans Long On Novembers, A World Short On Dollars, US Retail Sales Suggest A Move Into That Second Half

By |2019-10-11T16:56:48-05:00October 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The year 2015 started out very rough. While the mainstream tried very hard to make the oil crash into a supply glut and Janet Yellen kept referring to the “best jobs market in decades” as if it that specific combination of words was some sort of incantation, the early months of that year represented a [...]

The Scientism of Trade Wars

By |2019-10-09T10:59:05-05:00October 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One year ago, last October, the IMF published the update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2018. Like many, the organization began to talk more about trade wars and protectionism. It had become a topic of conversation more than concern. Couched as only downside risks, the IMF still didn’t think the fuss would amount [...]

The Big Picture Doesn’t Include ‘Trade Wars’

By |2019-10-01T18:20:57-05:00October 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The WTO today downgraded its estimates for global trade growth. In April, the international organization had figured the total volume of world merchandise trade would expand by about 2.6% in all of 2019 once the year closed out on the anticipated second half rebound. Everyone took their lumps in H1 and the WTO like central [...]

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