fomc

The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

By |2019-08-13T16:13:21-04:00August 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency [...]

Sure, One and Done

By |2019-08-01T15:35:23-04:00August 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC yesterday reiterated their stance that the economy was strong. But they also hedged. A one-and-done rate cut is one thing, some insurance (allegedly) for keeping the good times rolling. What about QT, though? That’s the funny thing that you can’t help but get stuck on. Not bank reserves, mind you, they’re worthless (perhaps [...]

The Correlations Behind The Rate Cut(s)

By |2019-07-31T12:23:14-04:00July 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In every likelihood, the Federal Reserve today is going to join other central banks around the world who have already cut rates. It is the synchronized signal completing the turn from globally synchronized growth into a globally synchronized downturn. To most people in the United States, at least, this is a puzzling shift.   The [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T16:45:35-04:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds [...]

What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

By |2019-07-23T18:31:49-04:00July 23rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one [...]

Dollar Destruction Potential: From China ‘Outflows’ To The FOMC Considering QE5

By |2019-07-10T17:53:14-04:00July 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Tucked away in a quiet little corner of the BIS publication library, a study was published in the organization’s September 2015 Quarterly Review. One of the biggest mysteries of that time was Chinese “capital flight.” It was breathtaking, and it would only get worse. What was really going on? Many if not most mainstream stories [...]

Curve-sanity

By |2019-06-12T19:01:18-04:00June 12th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are those which are so very clear in their disingenuousness – to the point of overdoing it and becoming obviously absurd. In the increasingly desperate rush to downplay the headlong race to rate cuts, this one’s up there: Eurodollar futures traders, having decided that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut the fed funds [...]

Bills, Beige, And the Consequences of the Disappeared Labor Shortage

By |2019-06-06T12:50:36-04:00June 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is everyone saying so simply because [...]

How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

By |2019-06-03T12:18:46-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the [...]

The Transitory Story, I Repeat, The Transitory Story

By |2019-05-22T15:44:29-04:00May 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Understand what the word “transitory” truly means in this context. It is no different than Ben Bernanke saying, essentially, subprime is contained. To the Fed Chairman in early 2007, this one little corner of the mortgage market in an otherwise booming economy was a transitory blip that booming economy would easily withstand. Just eight days [...]