false dawn

The Long Running Circus of Uncertainty Circles Back

By |2019-04-10T16:21:08-04:00April 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most of the best circuses used to have three main rings. Nowadays, we can only get the occasional show for two on the same day. It is a rare treat when central bankers from two major jurisdictions compete for the world’s misapprehending attention. Today is one of those days: Mario Draghi and the ECB as [...]

The Deeper Red of The (False) Dawn

By |2019-03-06T11:38:33-05:00March 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The concept of an economic “false dawn” was almost entirely unfamiliar to the postwar US experience. We came close in 2002 and the first half of 2003, but eventually the housing bubble era took over. The dot-com recession was mild, sure enough, somehow, though, recovery seemed so elusive for a longer period than the contraction [...]