factory orders

A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

By |2019-11-07T16:22:14-05:00November 7th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like [...]

A Bigger Boat

By |2019-09-10T12:42:43-04:00September 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just [...]

The Real Power Behind Currency Wars

By |2019-08-06T16:28:08-04:00August 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s another one of those things that just blows up the whole convention, another pretty clear sign that the mainstream has it all backward. We are seeing it play out right now with China. The Chinese are being accused of unfair currency manipulation, the sort of “competitive devaluation” that fills whole chapters in the Keynesian [...]

I’d Like To Solve The Puzzle: Nastier Number Four, The New Lows in Germany

By |2019-07-05T16:18:14-04:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The European slump had been a combination of several transitory factors. At least that’s what they had kept saying. ECB officials and staff Economists didn’t use that specific word, so far that’s the exclusive domain of the Federal Reserve. Regardless of semantics, the message was clear: the 2018 economy ended on a sour note but [...]

Contracting Factories, Curiously Rebounding Inbound Cars, And the Confirmed End of Decoupling

By |2019-07-03T11:52:14-04:00July 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US manufacturing sector may not be in as bad a shape as its German or Japanese counterparts, though it appears to be catching up on the downside. The Census Bureau reports today that new orders for all types of goods in all industries fell 1.6% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. This was the first [...]

The (Fake) Recovery Behind Record Low Bund Yields

By |2019-06-07T16:09:13-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

No Federal Reserve Chairman under its current configuration can say QE didn’t work. Those words will never pass the lips of whoever it may be occupying that position. The world’s bond markets, however, are trying very hard to make this resistance as uncomfortable as possible. The one thing central bankers here along with everywhere else [...]

What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

By |2019-05-07T11:59:32-04:00May 7th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who [...]

External Demand, Global Means Global

By |2019-04-04T17:00:23-04:00April 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in December after feuding with the federal government [...]

Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

By |2019-03-19T16:14:36-04:00March 19th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6. That’s up from -24.7 back in October, though sentiment had [...]

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