Europe

A Bigger Boat

By |2019-09-10T12:42:43-04:00September 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just [...]

Is The Negativity Overdone?

By |2019-09-09T18:40:36-04:00September 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s [...]

Some Brief European Leftovers

By |2019-08-14T17:42:17-04:00August 14th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some further odds and ends of European data. Beginning with Continent-wide Industrial Production. Germany is leading the system lower, but it’s not all just Germany. And though manufacturing and trade are thought of as secondary issues in today’s services economies, the GDP estimates appear to confirm trade in goods as still an important condition and [...]

Europe’s Further Confirmation(s)

By |2019-08-14T17:08:18-04:00August 14th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The key takeaway from Europe’s economic data dump today isn’t that the whole Continental economy is poised on the verge of recession, though that’s thrust of what’s being written about most. The reason is simple; this is all highly unexpected in the mainstream. Going by official accounts alone, there was never a hint of trouble [...]

Germany Struggles On

By |2019-07-24T16:05:18-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis [...]

Poring Over Poor Singapore’s Far Nastier Number Four

By |2019-07-15T17:32:41-04:00July 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You aren’t going to find the worst economic quarter in Singapore’s modern history in either 2008 or 2009. It was actually posted in 2010. During the third quarter of that year, GDP declined by a whopping 11% annual rate. While that’s the biggest contraction still on record, initial government estimates thought it was closer to [...]

Bad Steepening Bills and Europe’s Possible Self-Reinforcing Recession Processes

By |2019-06-04T17:51:35-04:00June 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Normally, it’s a very good sign when the yield curve steepens. If longer-term rates are rising faster than those on the shorter end of the curve, it would say the bond market is forecasting a better probability of normal. Given where interest rates have been the last decade plus, this kind of steepening is what [...]

Europe Comes Apart, And That’s Before #4

By |2019-05-29T11:21:31-04:00May 29th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In May 2018, the European Parliament found that it was incredibly popular. Commissioning what it calls the Eurobarameter survey, the EU’s governing body said that two-thirds of Europeans inside the bloc believed that membership had benefited their own countries. It was the highest showing since 1983. Voters in May 2019 don’t appear to have agreed [...]