eurodollar futures curve

What Kind Of Risks/Mess Are We Looking At?

By |2019-06-03T18:08:37-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that the mainstream isn’t taking this all very seriously isn’t anything new. But how serious are things really? That’s pretty much the only question anyone should be asking. What are the curves telling us about what’s now just over the horizon? I hesitate to use 2008 comparisons too often because many people immediately [...]

How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

By |2019-06-03T12:18:46-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the [...]

Irony of Ironies; It’s Been Federal Funds Leading the Bond Yield Plunge The Whole Way

By |2019-05-28T16:51:44-04:00May 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Tomorrow will be one year since the global monetary system broke. Or, for the sake of accuracy, broke again this for the fourth time. There had been warnings going all the way back to September 2017 about how all was not right in the realm of reserve currency. These would take on added importance at [...]

Chart (Deluge) Of The Month

By |2019-05-24T16:44:54-04:00May 24th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In Europe, the ECB’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Financial market developments, which were typically more forward looking, were more upbeat. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Participants noted that even if global economic and financial conditions continued to improve, a patient approach would likely remain [...]

Curves Have Pointed The Way, And It’s The Way They Still Point

By |2019-05-10T16:35:07-04:00May 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of last November, when the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve convened a conference on “global perspectives”, ironically, its officials were in a very good mood. The institution’s Chairman, Jay Powell, invited to speak at the gathering spelled out exactly why. Central bankers since Greenspan have made a habit of trying to [...]

GDP: Deja Vu

By |2019-04-26T12:35:15-04:00April 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Real GDP growth in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 was much better than expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Most analysts were expecting somewhere around 2.3% to 2.5%. Considering mounting uncertainties and growing fears, in the face [...]

Easter Doesn’t Change Curve Crazy Retail Sales

By |2019-04-18T16:02:39-04:00April 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Nothing will ever compare to China’s New Year Golden Week holiday for challenging economic statistics. Since the celebrations are not affixed to a specific point on the calendar, floating around back and forth some years between January and February, it makes making comparisons of those months particularly tricky. For the China’s Big 3 statistics, industrial [...]

Downturn Is Everywhere

By |2019-03-22T12:47:15-04:00March 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe is a total mess, no one can (honestly) argue otherwise. But that’s just Germany and France, right? PMI’s in those countries were a disaster. Those reported for the US weren’t really all that bad. Weaker, sure, hardly the obvious sinking especially when compared to German manufacturers. IHS Markit’s flash US Manufacturing Index for March [...]