establishment survey

Consumers Have To or Want To with Revolving Credit?

By |2019-09-11T17:00:04-04:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the [...]

Labor Data Dependent

By |2019-09-10T17:22:47-04:00September 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right now, everything comes down to the labor market. Does the US economy hang on despite stubborn and evidently non-transitory overseas turmoil cross currents? Or do American consumers rightly confident of the economic situation re-assert themselves via their wallets and deliriously spend the economy back on track? You better believe Fed Chairman Jay Powell will [...]

Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

By |2019-09-06T12:33:28-04:00September 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the [...]

Did The BLS Just Find The Landmine? One-Fifth Of Previously Estimated Payroll Gains May Not Have Existed

By |2019-08-22T17:34:13-04:00August 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entire basis for what the Fed is now calling a “mid-cycle” adjustment rests upon a specific view of the labor market. There was weakness in consumer spending, there remains weakness in business investment, but none of these cross currents or headwinds are going to matter. Americans are experiencing robust employment conditions which when these [...]

Weakening Labor Market Now In All The Data

By |2019-08-06T12:10:20-04:00August 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The JOLTS series had always been a seemingly superfluous set of labor numbers for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The agency wanted to go deeper into employment when it originally presented these other series in 2002. The unemployment rate seemed accurate enough, but it came at the labor market solely from the view of [...]

Post-Landmine Payrolls

By |2019-07-05T12:32:29-04:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never about a single payroll report. Even still, there’s something significant in how the “good” ones aren’t measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the headline is being described as relieving [...]

Payrolls: Rate Cuts Not Of Their Choice

By |2019-06-07T12:09:23-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn’t get anyone too worked up. May 2019’s jobs report, however, isn’t in isolation. The [...]