Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

By |2019-10-10T15:30:50-05:00October 10th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Markets|

When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn't waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I've related in these missives before, he called those things "well-worried". His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into [...]

Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

By |2019-09-06T12:33:28-05:00September 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the [...]

The Unemployment Rate Has Been Left Even Lonelier

By |2019-06-10T17:59:23-05:00June 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate has been maybe the loneliest of numbers. That didn’t quite mean it was entirely alone. Of the major economic accounts, only the JOLTS series and only one part of that series suggested the big mainstream employment indicator was anywhere close to accurate. Job Openings (JO) have been surging as if companies are [...]

Payrolls: Rate Cuts Not Of Their Choice

By |2019-06-07T12:09:23-05:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn’t get anyone too worked up. May 2019’s jobs report, however, isn’t in isolation. The [...]


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