employment report

Did The BLS Just Find The Landmine? One-Fifth Of Previously Estimated Payroll Gains May Not Have Existed

By |2019-08-22T17:34:13-04:00August 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entire basis for what the Fed is now calling a “mid-cycle” adjustment rests upon a specific view of the labor market. There was weakness in consumer spending, there remains weakness in business investment, but none of these cross currents or headwinds are going to matter. Americans are experiencing robust employment conditions which when these [...]

Trend-Cycle or Payrolls?

By |2019-01-04T11:57:19-05:00January 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, February, 2, 2001, the BLS reported stellar headline numbers for its Employment Situation release. Preliminary estimates for the Establishment Survey suggested US payrolls had gained +268k in the month of January. To put it in perspective, that would equate to +324k in today’s population, or a bit better than the latest figure. The [...]

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