ecb

A Bigger Boat

By |2019-09-10T12:42:43-04:00September 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just [...]

Is The Negativity Overdone?

By |2019-09-09T18:40:36-04:00September 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T16:45:35-04:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds [...]

Europeans First to Reverse: Draghi Warned Draghi Seventeen Months Ago

By |2019-06-18T12:07:17-04:00June 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the basis for rational analysis, it was a very public admission of bias and error. We don’t know why inflation ultimately will do what we believe it will, they said, we just believe that it will so you should, too. It sounds ludicrous, but it is actually very much in keeping with standard [...]

Central Bankers Follow Bonds, Then Insist They Aren’t And That Bonds Agree With Them

By |2019-05-24T13:04:09-04:00May 24th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When central bankers use the word “financial” in an economic context, they mean exclusively stocks. Maybe that’s somewhat appropriate given how bonds are so often treated as monetary equivalents. Then again, if that is the case in the official view, how does anyone reconcile bonds with anything? Economy or money? The hard answer is that [...]

As Europe Keeps Falling, The Implications For Europe And Everyone Else

By |2019-05-17T12:17:22-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In late March, as global pessimism was renewed in the world’s bond markets, ECB President Mario Draghi appeared as he always does to urge optimism. Yes, Europe’s economy in particular didn’t finish 2018 as he had been expecting. But a soft patch, Draghi said, wouldn’t necessarily “foreshadow [a] serious slump.” The question on the minds [...]

What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

By |2019-05-07T11:59:32-04:00May 7th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who [...]

Only Partial Springtime Sentiment Shift, ECB Edition

By |2019-04-17T17:39:02-04:00April 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At last week’s ECB’s press conference, the central bank’s President Mario Draghi was both downbeat and upbeat. As to the former, he acknowledged that Europe’s economy wasn’t working out the way they’d all hoped (and repeatedly promised). Despite the disappointment, Draghi wasn’t completely deterred. This growth scare wasn’t really European, he said. China, trade, and [...]

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