downturn

Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate of Change?

By |2019-08-26T18:39:46-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of [...]

Nastier Number Four: A Broader Industrial Base On The Wrong Side

By |2019-07-16T16:20:04-04:00July 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s always weakness even in the most booming of economies. Even in the real booms, not the 2017 hysteria kind, not all cylinders will be firing. What makes them real, however, is when the vast majority are. The concept behind globally synchronized growth was a valid one, it just never came out in practice. The [...]

China’s Export Story Is Everyone’s Economic Base Case

By |2019-05-08T11:53:08-04:00May 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first time the global economy was all set to boom, officials were at least more cautious. Chastened by years of setbacks and false dawns, in early 2014 they were encouraged nonetheless. The US was on the precipice of a boom (the first time), it was said, and though Europe was struggling it was positive [...]

Auto Sales The Lowest In Half A Decade, Just Coincidence FCA Will Join Ford, GM Ditching Monthly Sales Estimates

By |2019-05-02T17:37:15-04:00May 2nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

FCA, formerly Fiat-Chrysler, is the latest automaker to switch from a monthly sales report. Joining GM and Ford, beginning in October all three of Detroit’s big car companies will be publishing quarterly sales figures. The announcement comes at an auspicious moment. As with the other two, FCA claims the change is being done in the [...]

Another Sign of the Changed Times, The Politics of Inflation

By |2019-04-29T16:58:54-04:00April 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The administration continues to plead for rate cuts. I think they understand the gravity of the situation, if not quite the situation itself. The President’s chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, was back at his old TV home on CNBC today. In the wake of more “muted” inflation figures one quarter of the way through 2019, [...]

What Tokyo Eurodollar Redistribution Really Means For ‘Green Shoots’

By |2019-04-29T11:55:51-04:00April 29th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last April, monetary officials in Japan were publicly contemplating ending asset purchases under QQE. This April, they are more quietly wondering what other financial assets they might have to buy just to keep it all going a little longer. I’d suggest something like the clouds passing over the islands or the ocean water surrounding them. [...]

GDP: Deja Vu

By |2019-04-26T12:35:15-04:00April 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Real GDP growth in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 was much better than expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Most analysts were expecting somewhere around 2.3% to 2.5%. Considering mounting uncertainties and growing fears, in the face [...]